Brazilian Leader’s Protégée Likely to Prevail in Election

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, right and Workers Party presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff greeted by supporters during a campaign rally.
By Alexei Barrionuevo
Published October 2nd, 2010 - The New York Times - Sunday (online) issue
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São Paulo, Brazil - Though Dilma Rousseff is a political novice and lacks the charisma of her former boss, President Luiz Inácio da Silva, voters appear likely to make her the first woman to be president of Brazil in Sunday's election.
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Opinion surveys her leading by a wide margin and suggest that she could get more than 50 percent plus one vote of the valid vote, enough to squeak by and avoid a runoff.
Ms. Rousseff, 62, was able to ride Mr. da Silva's popularity and make the election essentially a referendum on his eight years in the office, a period of widespread prosperity that cemented the country as a rising global player.
"This turned out to be a predictable plebiscite, a thumbs-up for the Lula years," said Timothy J. Power, director of the Latin American Center at the University of Oxford.
Mr. Silva spent the better part of a year trying to introduce his chosen successor to Brazilians. She was initially unknown to the masses and not very dynamic in public. Mr. Silva joined himself to her hip, crisscrossing the country to campaign on her behalf.
He trumpeted his government's accomplishments and passed some the credit to Ms. Rousseff, who also formerly served as his minister of energy and mines and as a chairwoman of Petrobras, the Brazilian Oil Company.
Last year there was some concern that he would stick with Ms. Rousseff as the Worker's Party Candidate after she was given a diagnosis of lymphatic cancer. After chemoterapy treatment, which led her to wear a wig for several weeks, doctors said her cancer had been driven into remission.
Still, not even a scandal involving Ms. Rousseff's successor as chief of staff has been able to diminish her lead much in the polls.
Two weeks ago, media reports here accused Erenice Guerra, who took over for Ms. Rousseff in April so she could campaign, of participating in an influence-peddling scheme with her son, involving kickbacks for public work contracts. Mr. da Silva swiftly asked for Ms. Guerra's resignation and managed to contain the scandal. Ms. Rousseff was never linked to directly to any wrongdoing.
Ms. Rousseff appeared to have taken a slight dip in the polls at that time, but she has recovered. In the latest poll, conducted Sept. 28 and 29 by Datafolha, a Brazilian polling company, Ms. Rousseff was backed by 52 percent of voters, among her rivals, José Serra the former Governor of São Paulo, had 31 percent and Marina Silva, Mr. da Silva's popular former environment minister, had 15 percent. But with a marging of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points, it is impossible for the poll to suggest that a runoff would be necessary.
Polling data showed that the scandal only seemed to resonate with upper-income voters, while her support from the poor, which benefited greatly under Mr. da Silva, held strong.
Barring any major surprises, even if Ms. Rousseff does not prevail Sunday she would be all but assured a victory in an Oct. 31 runoff, analysts said.
The campaign was devoid of big issues that divided the candidates, Mr. Serra, who ran for president in 2002, tried to campaign on his deep political experience as a governor, senator and health minister under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He tried to bill himself as a better continuation candidate than Ms. Rousseff. An early campaign slogan was "Brazil can do more," and he used images in his television time of him working side-by-side with Mr. da Silva.
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Analysts said that Mr. Serra's strategy was confusing, but that he never really had a change once Ms. Rousseff became better known as the president's pick.
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Mr. da Silva, whose approval ratings hover around 80 percent, deepened the economic policies begun under Mr. Cardoso, policies that have won him wide support, especially among the poor in the northeast and among a rapidly growing lower-middle class.
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Ms. Rousseff, has vowed to create millions more jobs and housing units for Brazilians, and to deepen the infrastructure development of the country.
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Whether Ms. Rousseff of Mr. Serra wins will matter little for Brazilian's economic policy direction, analysts say. While some predict that Ms. Rousseff, who was a guerrilla fighter in the 1960s battling the military ditactorship, will steer Brazi left, favoring a larger role for the state in the economy, most see her as a pragmatist in the mold of Mr. da Silva, who initially drew similar concerns.
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But few see the next president, whether it is Ms. Rosseff or Mr. Serra as having the same swagger on the international stage that Mr. Silva had.
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Despite having only a fourth-grade education, Mr. da Silva, a former union leader, used his emotional charismatic personality to win over leaders in the region and abroad.
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During his time in office, Brazil secured the 2014 Soccer World Cup and the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. He engaged Brazil in Middle East politics, forging warm ties with Iran, to the chagrin of the United States.
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"Lula is a hard act to follow in terms of the public face of Brazil, "Mr. Power said. "The foreign policy goals will be the same, but the presidentially led diplomacy, the summitry, will be dialed back"
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VOCABULARY:
Protégeé: noun, feminine, a person who is protected and aided by the patronage of another person (from French: Protéger - to protect)
Likely: adj., possessing or displaying the qualities or characteristics that make something probable.
Privail: verb intransitive, to be greater in strength or influence, triumph: prevail against the enemy.
Lacks: noun, a particular deficiency or absence: Owing to a lack of supporters, the reform did not succeed.
Surveys: noun, a gathering of a sample of data or opinions, considered to be representative of a whole (can also be used as a transitive or intransitive verb).
Squeak by: idioms, manage one's existence barely: I guess I can squeeze by on this louzy salary.
Runoff: noun, an extra competition held to break a tie.
Widespread: adjective, occurring or accepted widely.
Thumbs-up: noun, an act, instance, or sign of approval.
Crisscrossing: Verb transitive, to move back and forth through or over: Crisscrossed the country on a speaking tour (it can be used as transitive verb, noun, adjective and adverb)
On her behalf: idioms, as the agent of, on the part of.
Trumpeted: Verb transitive, to sound or proclaim loudly (it can be used as a noun or intransitive verb).
Accomplishments: noun, something completed succefully, an achievement.
Chairwoman: noun, the officer who presides at the meetings of an organization.
Wig: noun, an artificial covering of human or synthetic hair worn on the head for personal adornment, as part of a costume, or to conceal baldness.
Remission: noun, the period during which the symptoms of a disease abate or subside.
Peddling: noun, the exchange of goods for an agreed sum of money.
Kickbacks: noun, part of an income paid to a person having influence over the size or payment of the income, esp. by some illegal arrangement.
Swiftly: adverb - derivative from the adjective swift - quick to act or react, prompt.
Devoid: adjective, completely lacking, destitute or empty.
Hover: verb intransitive, to remain floating, suspended, or fluttering in ther air: Gulls hoverign over the waves.
Has vowed: verb transitive, verb tense: Present Perfect of vow - to promise solemnly, to pledge.
Swagger: verb intransitive, to walk or behave in an arrogant manner.
Chagrin: verb transitive, to cause to feel chagrin, mortify or discomfit.
Summitry: noun, the practice of conducting international negotiations by summit conferences.